I'm not a very good epistemic agent. Even when I know that a disastrous proposition Q is very, very unlikely to obtain, I am often unable to rule out Q on the basis of my evidence. I know that when the mathematician suggests that we go to the movies, it is much more likely that he wants to see a movie than that he wants to get me in his car so he can chop me into little bits. Nevertheless, I see the horrible looming face outside my window and I am unable to eliminate the possibility that he is going to murder me, and my belief-state gets all skewed.
We could model this with possible worlds. I love doing that! It so happens that the possible worlds in which the mathematician murders me are, as modal metaphysicians say (driving me crazy with their lack of rigor) "far away." That means the possibility is not very likely to obtain. However, the set of my doxastically accessible possible worlds (the ones which represent my beliefs) drastically overrepresent the possibility that the mathematician will murder me if I go out with him.
And no, my crazy brain is not concerned with silly math, like the fact that the mathematician being the peeping tom = very unlikely and the fact that probably most peeping toms aren't actually murderers anyway, so the odds of him being the peeping tom AND a murderer are so very very tiny as to defy description. The crazy brain cares not for statistics!
Thing is, now I basically have to go out with him, because to do otherwise would be to let the crazy brain win. And I am so busy worrying about the murderin' that I can't really focus on the fact that I have no interest in seeing Beowulf.
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3 comments:
Funny choice for a date movie, innit? What about the new Dylan thing, or --hmm, that's about the only thing out there I feel like seeing. Oh well, movies are an easy date, because nobody has to talk.
emily, stop being so daft.
Let's look at the evidence outside your belief system: (a) Beowulf vs. Inland Empire, i.e., CGI vs. David Lynch; or (b) Beowulf/Inland Empire vs. Bob Dylan, i.e., bad date movies vs. unusually constructed biopic; or (c) he doesn't just not want to go to the movies alone, he wants to go with you. In (a) the possibility that he's a weirdo is high, (b) diminishes that prospect to merely a geek, and (c) means coffee and a slice of cake after while discussing how much you enjoyed the show and maybe a bit of romance - how nice, have fun. (What else is playing, anyway? No David Cronenberg?)
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